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Posted by admin on 2019-02-15 in 上海性息 with No Comments

The certainty of majority government has given consumer confidence a much needed fillip, which retailers hope will turn into spending.


But Thursday’s jobs data could dim the optimism should the unemployment rate continue to trend higher.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer confidence index on Wednesday jumped by 4.7 per cent in September to its highest reading since December 2010.

While the survey was conducted over September 2 to 8, taking in only one day after the election result, media coverage and opinion polls had pointed to a solid win for the coalition.

“I think it is reasonable to conclude that the election result played an important, if not leading role in this strong boost to consumer sentiment,” Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia economist Gareth Aird said the election has brought certainty, ending a “protracted and tiresome” campaign which effectively began in January when former prime minister Julia Gillard called for a September election.

Australian Retailers Association executive director Russell Zimmerman hopes increased confidence will directly impact retailers’ tills heading towards the end of the year.

An analysis by Deloitte Access Economics believes the performance of the housing sector will play a key role in any recovery in retail spending.

“When people are bidding up the price of housing they are also lifting their rate of retail spending,” Deloitte Access partner David Rumbens said in the report.

He said housing affordability has improved from two years ago, and home building is also lifting on the back of population growth and low interest rates.

The rise in consumer sentiment confidence followed Tuesday’s National Australia Bank’s business confidence data, which was at its highest level since May 2011 and also linked to the end of minority government.

“If we get to implement our program, the Senate and others co-operate in that regard, it will be positive for jobs, positive for workers, positive for business, positive for everybody,” Liberal senator Arthur Sinodinos told ABC radio.

Senator Sinodinos has been tipped as a future finance minister, but his upper house seat remains uncertain, as do a number of others, as the count continues.

Thursday’s labor force report for August is the first major economic data to be released since the election.

Economists expect the number of people employed to have grown by 10,000 in August compared to July but not by enough to stop the jobless rate rising to 5.8 per cent from 5.7 per cent.

The Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations’ leading employment index fell for an eighth consecutive month in September.

“This now confirms that employment is likely to continue to grow more slowly than its long-term trend rate of 1.4 per cent per annum over coming months,” it said on Wednesday.

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